Gujarat is experiencing significant changes in its monsoon patterns due to climate change. The Institute of Climate Change and Research at Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda has conducted research highlighting these shifts. The research shows that the monsoon’s behaviour has changed over the years, affecting rainfall patterns across the state.
In the past, cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal and affected Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh before reaching Gujarat. However, due to climate change, these cyclones now often take a route through Madhya Pradesh. This shift has implications for Gujarat’s rainfall, which is now becoming more unpredictable.
Traditionally, the southern parts of Gujarat received more rainfall. However, places like Kutch are now also experiencing heavy rains unexpectedly. For instance, the Hamirsar Lake in Bhuj, which rarely filled up, now often overflows during the monsoon.
The patterns of rainfall in Gujarat are influenced by various factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño phenomena. These factors alter the temperature of the sea, impacting the formation of cyclones and the rainfall they bring. For example, when the sea temperature exceeds 28 degrees Celsius, conditions become ripe for cyclones to develop.
Weather analyst Mukesh Pathak mentions that during the monsoon season, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a major cloud formation, passes over India multiple times. This phenomenon also contributes to rainfall in the region.
The research indicates that urbanisation and industrialisation significantly contribute to climate change. As cities grow, they create urban heat islands, which can affect weather patterns. For instance, areas within a city may experience rain while nearby areas remain dry.
Data shows that in Vadodara, a significant portion of the annual rainfall now falls within a single month, often leading to flooding. In June 2005, for example, Vadodara experienced 238 millimetres of rain in just one day, compared to an average of 135 millimetres for the month.
This change in rainfall patterns poses challenges for agriculture and water management in Gujarat. Farmers must adapt to these new realities, as excessive rainfall in one year can lead to drought the next. The Institute of Climate Change and Research has called for urgent action to address these issues, including better data collection and analysis to prepare for future changes.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has initiated a campaign called ‘Mission Life’ aimed at protecting nature. Embracing this mission is crucial for preserving the environment and ensuring sustainable development in the face of climate change. As Gujarat faces these challenges, collaboration between government, scientists, and communities will be essential to mitigate the effects of climate change and adapt to the new normal in weather patterns.
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