Gujarat has recorded 514.3 mm of rain between 1 June and 2 September against a seasonal normal of 605.1 mm, a shortfall of 15 per cent, on India Meteorological Department figures compiled at its Ahmedabad centre and reported by DeshGujarat. Fifteen of the state’s districts sit in the deficient or large-deficient bands, and the IMD expects below-normal rain across most of the country through September.
One state, two monsoons
The state average hides the split that actually matters. The Gujarat region, covering south, central and north Gujarat, is running 4 per cent below normal at 541.4 mm against 566.5 mm. Saurashtra and Kutch have taken 292.5 mm against a normal of 454.9 mm, a 36 per cent shortfall.
The district numbers are starker. Devbhumi Dwarka is 88 per cent short. Porbandar is 73 per cent short. Jamnagar and Kutch are each 60 per cent short. Below them sit Aravalli at 46 per cent, Dahod at 45, Sabarkantha at 43, Gir Somnath at 39, Junagadh at 36, Rajkot at 33, Vadodara at 30, Chhota Udepur at 29, and Banaskantha, Gandhinagar and Mehsana in the mid-twenties.
South Gujarat had the opposite season. Valsad closed 53 per cent above normal, Navsari 42 per cent, Surat 34 per cent, Kheda 24, Dangs 23 and Bharuch 20. Gujarat Samachar has been tracking the same divide, with flooding in the south while Kutch and north Gujarat stayed dry.
The dams tell a gentler story
Reservoir storage looks healthier than the rainfall ledger. On 1 September the Sardar Sarovar held 8,329.60 million cubic metres, 88.05 per cent of design capacity, with an inflow of 80,151 cusecs. Ukai stood at 78.53 per cent and Shetrunji in Saurashtra was full. Dharoi in north Gujarat, at 51.83 per cent, marks where the comfort ends.
Those two pictures are consistent, because Sardar Sarovar and Ukai fill from catchments outside the dry districts. The Narmada draws on Madhya Pradesh, the Tapi on Maharashtra. Storage in the big dams says little about whether a farmer in Dwarka or a municipal supply in Porbandar has water, and that gap is the point of the SAUNI pipeline network the state has spent a decade laying to move Narmada water into Saurashtra reservoirs.
What it means through the winter
Rabi sowing opens in October and runs on two inputs: stored soil moisture and assured irrigation. Districts at 60 to 88 per cent below normal have neither in reserve, which pushes cultivators towards canal water, borewells, or a smaller sown area. Groundwater in coastal Saurashtra carries its own penalty. Aquifers there have drawn salt inland for decades when pumping outruns recharge, and a season this short gives recharge nothing to work with.
Drinking water is the earlier pressure. Municipal bodies in Jamnagar, Dwarka and Porbandar depend on local reservoirs that have not filled, which leaves them dependent on Narmada transfers through the summer of 2027. The state has run those transfers before, so the mechanism exists. What a 36 per cent regional deficit changes is how long it has to run and how much Narmada storage it consumes.
What to watch
The IMD’s national outlook puts September rain below 91 per cent of the long-period average, with a large share of the country already deficient at the end of August, as Down To Earth reported. Forecasters have also seen little sign of an Arabian Sea system that could revive rain over Gujarat, and Skymet has called the prospect of a strong revival over Gujarat and Rajasthan fading.
Three markers will show how the winter goes. Whether the state announces scarcity measures for the western Saurashtra talukas, whether SAUNI transfers start early rather than in the spring, and what the rabi sowing figures look like against last year when the agriculture department publishes them in November.
Sources: DeshGujarat, Gujarat Samachar, Down To Earth, Skymet
This report was compiled and written with AI assistance from publicly reported sources, and reviewed for accuracy.